Weekly Economy and Finance Bulletin — 10–16 August 2026
ECThe week’s headlines: the US trade deficit narrowed 5.6% in June to USD 73.3 billion, annual inflation across the OECD eased to 4.2%, and CBRT gross reserves rose to USD 164.4 billion. US inflation data and Türkiye’s industrial production are in focus this week.
Prepared by our Financial Research Department, this weekly bulletin brings together the key developments across global and domestic markets alongside the week’s economic data calendar. The full bulletin is available as a PDF via the link at the bottom of the page.
The dominant theme this week is easing inflation indicators coexisting with continued uncertainty over monetary policy. While price pressures softened across the OECD and in China, signals from the Fed make the September meeting pivotal.
Global markets
- The US trade deficit narrowed 5.6% month-on-month in June to USD 73.3 billion. Exports fell 0.9% to USD 314.7 billion and imports declined 1.8% to USD 388 billion.
- According to a Financial Times report citing sources, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signalled openness to a rate hike at the September meeting should inflation come in above expectations.
- German exports rose 0.9% and imports 4.4% in June, leaving a trade surplus of EUR 15.4 billion. Industrial production edged up 0.2% month-on-month, lifted by the automotive sector.
- Annual inflation across the OECD eased from 4.6% to 4.2% in June 2026 after a three-month climb. Inflation fell in 20 countries, rose in six and was flat in 12.
- In China, July producer inflation slowed from 4.1% to 3.5% and consumer inflation from 1% to 0.5%, pointing to easing oil-driven cost pressures.
- Chinese exports grew 23% year-on-year in dollar terms in July, beating expectations, while imports rose 27.5%.
- The Japanese yen weakened 0.5% against the dollar in August, the poorest performance among G-10 currencies.
- Oil prices rose on uncertainty over whether the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in the near term, while gold slipped on profit-taking.
Domestic markets
- CBRT total gross reserves rose USD 1.8 billion in the week ending 31 July to USD 164.4 billion.
- CBRT Governor Fatih Karahan noted that slowing domestic demand kept import growth contained while exports gained pace. He said the broad-based decline in inflation continued, rigidity in rent and education components eased, and inflation expectations improved.
- Treasury cash revenues reached TRY 1,394 billion in July against TRY 1,790 billion in expenditure, producing a cash deficit of TRY 395.7 billion, up from TRY 50.1 billion previously.
- The CPI-based real effective exchange rate rose 0.39 points month-on-month in July to 105.96.
- An AI-assisted accounting project run by the Ministry of Treasury and Finance identified more than TRY 2 billion of public spending carrying inefficiency risk, with wider use of advanced analytics in public financial management targeted.
- ING strategists expect the lira to weaken should the CBRT ease liquidity conditions, projecting USD/TRY at 48.30 in one month and 58.50 in twelve months.
- Following the departure of Türkiye İş Bankası CEO Hakan Aran on 31 August, Hasan Cahit Çınar will take over as chief executive from 1 September.
Economic data calendar
- Monday 10 August — Türkiye industrial production, China inflation rate
- Tuesday 11 August — Türkiye retail sales
- Wednesday 12 August — US inflation rate and CPI (monthly and annual)
- Thursday 13 August — US PPI, UK GDP and industrial production, euro area industrial production
- Friday 14 August — US retail sales, euro area trade balance, China current account
This content is for general information only and does not constitute investment advice.
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